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Marginal ROI calculator: find your optimal ad spend

Find the daily spend that maximizes profit, and the point where it stops. Free, runs entirely in your browser, and your data is never uploaded to a server.

About this tool

What the Marginal Efficiency Calculator calculates

The Marginal Efficiency Calculator finds the daily spend level where paid media stops being profitable, by modeling diminishing returns explicitly. Ads platforms report your average CPA; decisions should be made on your marginal CPA, the cost of the next conversion, which is always higher when returns diminish.

The formula

The response curve is a power function: paid conversions = a times spend to the power B, where B (between 0.2 and 0.95) expresses how hard returns diminish and the coefficient a is derived from your current spend, blended CPA, and the share of conversions that are truly incremental. You set B as a scenario assumption rather than pretending to fit it from noisy data.

From that curve: average CPA at spend S = S^(1-B) / a, and marginal CPA = average CPA divided by B, always higher than average when B is below 1. Profit at S = conversions times contribution margin minus S. The profit-maximizing spend solves in closed form at the point where marginal CPA equals contribution margin, and break-even spend is where total profit crosses zero. Your current spend lands in a growth, scale, or loss zone with a recommendation, and a sensitivity table shows which input moves the answer most.

Expected input

No CSV. Five inputs: daily spend, blended CPA from your ads platform, contribution margin per conversion (your break-even CPA), the percent of reported conversions that are truly paid rather than organic, and the diminishing-returns exponent B. Presets cover typical DTC apparel, SaaS lead gen, and supplement profiles, and scenarios encode into a shareable URL.

Assumptions and limits

  • One constant exponent governs the whole curve; real accounts kink at audience boundaries.
  • Contribution margin is treated as constant profit per conversion.
  • Blended CPA from Ads Manager includes organic conversions; the paid-share input is what discounts them.
  • Monthly figures are daily figures times 30.
The framework behind it
First-Time Customer P&L
Contribution margin per conversion, the number this tool pivots on, comes from the first-order P&L.
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Curtis Howland LLC
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